There are increasing suggestions that the IRA will have met - possibly in a Convention - before today's key conference, which is expected to back a motion on support for the PSNI.

On Tuesday afternoon in Belfast, the ceasefire watchdog, the Independent Monitoring Commission, will publish its latest report.

That assessment will be finalised over the weekend once the outcome of the ard fheis is known.

The Adams/McGuinness/Kelly leadership is expected to achieve a convincing victory in Dublin.

"We are going to win the vote," a republican source told Sunday Life last night. But how convincingly, he wouldn't predict.

On the likelihood of a secret IRA meeting before the ard fheis, another source said that would be "a reasonable assessment to make".

"When they go to the ard fheis they will have all their ducks in a row. It (an IRA meeting) has to happen," the source said.

Indeed, such a meeting is seen as a crucial part of the republican " sequence of events".

"It's inconceivable they wouldn't be meeting," a source told Sunday.

What was not clear yesterday was whether the IRA leadership would speak publicly to set out its position before the Sinn Fein party conference.

But, whatever happens, the republican political leadership will know the IRA's thinking.

Senior figures in that organisation have had an important role in the internal republican briefings leading to the ard fheis.

Adams and McGuinness will know that they have the support of the 'army council' and the other significant parts of the IRA leadership.

Another source said: "I will be completely astonished if things don't go the right way (at the ard fheis). The only thing will be the size of the majority." That majority is expected to be considerable.

In April 2005, in an address to the IRA, Adams called on that organisation to "take courageous initiatives which will achieve your aims by purely political and democratic activity".

Since then, the IMC has reported on the ending of the armed campaign, decommissioning and the disbanding of the IRA's military structures.

Victory in today's conference on policing will clearly be viewed by the IMC as Adams and Sinn Fein delivering to an impressive standard.

"It's leadership of a high order," said a source.

The big question is: Will it unblock the political process?

How will Ian Paisley and the DUP respond?

The coming days are seen as crucial in determining the next political steps.

Today, republicans will support an historic initiative on policing - and then the political attention will switch to Paisley and his party.